Türkiye's New Climate Reality: Persistent Drought and the COP31 Process

The recent heavy rainfall in Turkey clearly demonstrates that climate change is no longer just a future threat, but a present one. While the intense rainfall, particularly in the early months of 2026, and the resulting increase in dam water levels may have provided temporary relief from drought in Turkey, long-term analyses of hydrological systems show that this situation is not as reassuring as it seems. This is because the problem is no longer merely an environmental issue caused by decreased rainfall during certain periods; it has become a deeper and more lasting global security issue with economic, social, and political consequences.

According to a news article titled "Persistent Drought Despite Heavy Rainfall: Turkey's New Climate Reality," published on T24 on May 21, 2026, the article emphasizes that the heavy rainfall in Turkey, far from eliminating the drought problem, is actually increasing the irregularities in the climate system. Experts state in the article that short-term, excessive rainfall does not contribute to the soil's ability to absorb water sufficiently, thus failing to replenish groundwater. Additionally, it highlights that Turkey, being located in the Mediterranean Basin, is among the regions that will be most affected by climate change.

Another noteworthy element in the news is that combating climate change requires not only post-disaster responses but also long-term sustainable policies. At this point, the importance of global climate diplomacy increases even further. The United Nations Climate Change Conferences are the most important international platform where states strive to produce common and sustainable solutions and where climate policies are shaped. In particular, the 31st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP31), to be held in Antalya in 2026, could be a significant turning point for Turkey. This is because Turkey is no longer just a country affected by climate change; like many countries in the Mediterranean region, it has become a hydroclimatic hotspot experiencing water stress, ecosystem fragility, and transformations in fire regimes.

In conclusion, the situation facing Turkey today proves that drought is no longer a temporary meteorological event that can be explained solely by a lack of rainfall. In this process, the approach that treats disaster management, forestry policies, and climate adaptation as independent areas no longer seems sustainable. In the coming period, an integrated hydroclimatic risk management approach that considers ecosystems and climate together is a fundamental need. At this point, COP31 is not only a diplomatic event but also a critical opportunity for Turkey to restructure and define its own climate adaptation strategy, taking future generations into account.

Reference

T24. (2026, 21 Mayıs). Yoğun yağışlara rağmen kalıcı kuraklık: Türkiye’nin yeni iklim gerçeği. T24. https://t24.com.tr/yazarlar/iklim-masasi/yogun-yagislara-ragmen-kalici-kuraklik-turkiyenin-yeni-iklim-gercegi,55308?_t=1779536541382