A STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF U.S.–CHINA RIVALRY IN THE INDO-PACIFIC: MILITARY, ECONOMIC, AND LEGAL DIMENSIONS

The Indo-Pacific region has emerged as the focal point of contemporary global power competition, driven primarily by the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China. As one of the world’s most strategically significant maritime zones, hosting major sea lanes, dense trade flows, and substantial energy reserves, the region’s geopolitical landscape is increasingly shaped by competing visions of order and security. China has sought to expand its regional influence through historical sovereignty assertions in the South China Sea, the construction of artificial islands, and the deployment of military infrastructure across contested maritime zones. These actions, grounded in the “Nine-Dash Line” claim, have strengthened Beijing’s strategic posture while simultaneously raising concerns regarding regional stability. The United States, committed to preserving open sea routes and defending the rules based international order, has countered China’s growing assertiveness through Freedom of Navigation Operations, deepening defense partnerships with regional allies, and promoting the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” framework. Together, these developments underscore the emergence of the Indo-Pacific as a complex theatre of strategic rivalry with global implications.

China’s military modernization and the expansion of its naval presence constitute key pillars of its regional strategy. The militarization of artificial islands in the Spratly and Paracel chains, equipped with airstrips, radar systems, and missile platforms, has enabled Beijing to enhance its power projection capabilities and reinforce its territorial claims. These developments challenge the operational freedom of external actors, particularly the United States, whose longstanding regional role relies on sustained naval presence and alliance structures. The U.S., possessing extensive military networks in Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines, continues to conduct joint exercises, carrier deployments, and surveillance missions aimed at deterring unilateral changes to the status quo. The simultaneous military expansion of both powers increases the risk of miscalculation, particularly in highly contested maritime corridors such as the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.

Economically, the region reflects a multidimensional competition influenced by large scale connectivity and investment initiatives. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has significantly expanded its economic footprint through port development, infrastructure financing, and deepening trade relations, especially with ASEAN states. These initiatives have strengthened China’s long term geoeconomic influence and created strategic dependencies. Conversely, the United States seeks to counterbalance China’s economic rise through the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, supply chain diversification efforts, and expanded technological cooperation. Despite these competing models, regional states often pursue pragmatic strategies, leveraging economic opportunities offered by both powers while attempting to avoid overdependence. This dual track approach reflects the Indo-Pacific’s growing role in shaping the future of global economic governance.

The legal and normative dimensions of the U.S.–China rivalry center on conflicting interpretations of maritime law and sovereignty. While China bases its claims on historical narratives and domestic legislation, the United States emphasizes adherence to international maritime norms articulated in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Although not a formal signatory, the U.S. invokes UNCLOS principles to defend freedom of navigation and challenge excessive maritime claims. The 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling, which invalidated China’s broad claims in the South China Sea, marked a significant legal milestone; however, China’s rejection of the verdict and continued militarization highlight the complexities of enforcing international legal mechanisms in contested regions. This normative struggle reflects a wider contest over the character of the emerging international order and the legitimacy of competing rule making systems.

Regional actors, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Japan, occupy a central role in shaping the trajectory of the rivalry. These states employ varying strategies ranging from hedging and balancing to selective alignment, depending on their security concerns, economic interests and geopolitical priorities. While some seek strengthened defense ties with the United States, others prioritize economic cooperation with China. Their nuanced policy choices influence regional alignments and underscore the multi layered nature of Indo-Pacific geopolitics.

Overall, the Indo-Pacific region represents a critical geopolitical arena in which military power, economic strategies, and legal norms intersect to shape the evolving U.S.–China rivalry. China’s territorial claims, military buildup, and expansive economic initiatives challenge established security frameworks, while the United States seeks to preserve maritime openness and reinforce the rules based order. Although neither power aims for direct confrontation, their divergent strategic objectives increasingly heighten regional tensions, particularly in the South China Sea. The future of regional stability will depend not only on U.S.–China interactions but also on the policy choices of Indo-Pacific states navigating between these two major actors. As the rivalry continues to unfold, its outcomes will significantly influence global security, economic networks, and the normative underpinnings of the international system.

References:

Humbatov, S., & Adıbelli, B. (2025). Hint-Pasifik, Güney Çin Denizi ve Uzak Doğu'da ABD ve Çin Rekabet Alanları. Evliya Çelebi Siyasal Bilimler Dergisi, 3, 11–23.