NORMALIZATION IN U.S.–CHINA RELATIONS

In the international system of the twenty-first century, the United States and the People's Republic of China stand out as the two decisive forces of the global order. The relations of these two countries have long exhibited a complex structure, fluctuating between competition and cooperation. In his article titled "America and China Can Establish a Normal Relationship" published in Foreign Affairs magazine, Wei (2025) states that this relationship can now be maintained on a "normal" plane without being trapped in the poles of friendship or hostility. The article argued that today, when trade wars, technology limitations and strategic competition are intensifying, the two countries can develop a stable relationship model within the framework of limited competition without completely severing their relations. In this context, the current state of U.S.–China relations should be redefined from both a structural and actor-based perspective. The aim of our study is to analyze the risks in the relationship, the dynamics behind these risks and the possible orientations in the "normalization" process based on the article mentioned above.

Risks and Areas of Tension

According to Da Wei (2025), relations between the two countries show fragility in three key areas: economy, security, and geopolitical competition. At the economic level, the U.S. and China are closely linked; mutual trade volume and investment relations have created an indispensable economic reality for both sides. However, this mutual dependence also leads to fragility and creates a basis for the parties to develop economic pressure tools against each other. In the security sphere, competition is intensifying, particularly in the areas of advanced technology, artificial intelligence, defense systems, and data security. US export restrictions on China, the separation of supply chains, and China's technological advances are increasing strategic distrust between the parties.

In the geopolitical sphere, the Taiwan issue, sovereignty claims in the South China Sea, and military presence in the Asia-Pacific region keep tensions between the two countries constantly alive. It is important to emphasize that this situation is not merely a matter of short-term conflicts of interest. Da Wei (2025) points out that historical, ideological, and structural factors underlie this situation. While the U.S., as the founding actor of the current international order, tends to preserve its leadership in the system, China, as a rising power, demands more say in this order. This constitutes a current example of the process defined as "hegemonic transition" in international relations theories. Therefore, the risks are not only the result of diplomatic missteps but also the natural consequences of structural transformation.

Structural and Actor Dynamics

To understand the current trajectory of U.S.–China relations, the article examines both the structural and actor factors shaping this relationship. From a structural perspective, the international system's shift toward multipolarity has led both countries to adopt a more cautious approach toward each other. The US is strengthening its network of allies in the Asia-Pacific, such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia in order to maintain its global power, while China is expanding its economic initiatives through the Belt and Road project. Although this trend avoids direct conflict, it perpetuates the regional power struggle.

At the institutional level, the stance of decision-makers, inter-institutional interactions, and internal political dynamics are highly decisive. While the US Congress and public opinion demand a tougher stance against China, the Chinese administration is increasingly transforming national sovereignty into a central political element. Da Wei (2025) emphasizes that these internal factors limit the diplomatic flexibility of both sides, but also prevent a permanent conflict. The reason for this is that both sides are aware of their economic and technological dependencies, and this awareness is the most important factor preventing a complete breakdown in relations.

Normalization Process and Possible Directions

The main argument of the article is that the U.S. and China can establish a "normal" relationship. Normalization does not mean friendly cooperation; rather, it refers to a predictable and institutionalized form of competition that recognizes areas of mutual interest. Da Wei (2025) states that the parties could engage in functional cooperation, particularly in areas such as combating climate change, global health, food security, and energy supply. Partnerships developed in these areas could form a basis for establishing trust in the relationship.

However, normalization needs to occur not only in functional areas but also in diplomatic communication formats. Maintaining uninterrupted dialogue channels during crises, ensuring regular contact between military and diplomatic representatives and reducing strategic uncertainties are the main policy steps proposed in the article. These recommendations also coincide with the "crisis management" and "conflict prevention" approaches in international relations. Therefore, Da Wei's approach offers a kind of "peace in strategic competition" model: it is a balance in which competition does not completely disappear, but it prevents it from turning into conflict.

To conclude, Da Wei's (2025) article refuses to read the U.S.–China relations solely through the lens of competition and hostility and offers a more realistic and sustainable perspective of "normalization".

References:

Da Wei. (2025, October 30). America and China can have a normal relationship. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/america-and-china-can-have-normal-relationship