The Potential Implications of the UAE’s Withdrawal from OPEC on Global Climate Governance

According to a Euronews report published on April 30, 2026, the United Arab Emirates' decision to leave OPEC sparked debate regarding global energy markets and climate policies.

In this context, U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, in a speech at an oil conference in Abu Dhabi in November, stated that energy demand would "continuously increase," suggesting that there would be an over-addition to energy rather than an energy transformation, implying continued oil use. These statements garnered significant support from the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

In parallel, the UAE argues that although it controls approximately 40% of global crude oil production, the low production quotas imposed by OPEC in recent years have limited its export capacity. Nevertheless, an analysis by Capital Economics, the UAE has significantly increased its energy production capacity in recent years and is seen as eager to produce even more oil.

Potential Impacts of the UAE's Withdrawal from OPEC on Global Oil Supply

The UAE's departure from OPEC may not have a major direct impact on oil supply and prices in the short term. The global energy market remains heavily reliant on the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of world oil and gas shipments pass. However, an increase in oil production is expected in the long term. The United Arab Emirates has announced that it will gradually increase production depending on market conditions.

The United Arab Emirates, the world's third-largest oil producer, has a daily production capacity of approximately 5 million barrels. This indicates that the country is one of those within OPEC that can rapidly increase production.

The UAE's departure from OPEC could have twofold consequences. It is seen as weakening the organization's control over oil supply and prices, while potentially prompting other OPEC members to increase production.

The Trump administration is actively encouraging Gulf countries to increase production to maintain low oil prices. This move demonstrates that the United Arab Emirates aligns itself with the Donald Trump administration's energy policy, which places increased fossil fuel production at the center of its energy policy.

The Role of Gulf Capital in Europe's Green Transformation

In 2023, the UAE, which hosted the COP28 summit, signed a historic agreement with nearly 200 countries to move away from planet-warming fossil fuels. However, climate activists viewed the conference with skepticism, particularly given that the CEO of the UAE's state oil company, Sultan al-Jaber, both chaired COP28 and oversaw plans to increase oil production.

According to experts, the UAE is pursuing a strategy of growing both oil and renewable energy simultaneously, rather than choosing between them.

Masdar, a state-backed renewable energy company, is increasing its clean energy investments both domestically and internationally. The company operates in partnership with TAQA, Mubadala, and ADNOC. Masdar has investments in more than 40 countries and has achieved a significant position, particularly in offshore wind energy projects in Europe. The company's portfolio includes major projects such as Hywind Scotland (the world's first floating offshore wind farm) in Scotland, Dogger Bank South in the UK, and the Baltic Eagle Offshore Wind Farm in Germany.

This situation reinforces the argument that Gulf countries are both continuing fossil fuel production and playing an active role in global green energy investments.

Fossil Fuel Dependence and the Deepening Global Climate Crisis

The UAE has stated that its decision to leave OPEC reflects its long-term strategic and economic vision and will accelerate investments in domestic energy production. Burning a single barrel of oil generates approximately 0.43 tons of carbon emissions. It is estimated that if the UAE increases its production by 1.6 million barrels per day, it could cause approximately 250 million tons of additional carbon emissions annually. This figure is higher than the UAE's current total annual emissions.

Despite international commitments, fossil fuels remain a major driver of the climate crisis, leading to record levels of global emissions. The Paris Agreement's goal of staying within the 1.5°C warming threshold is projected to become virtually impossible by early 2028.

In conclusion, The UAE's withdrawal from OPEC clearly demonstrates that some of the world's largest producers have positioned themselves and shaped their strategies based on the projection that oil consumption will persist for a long time, despite scientific warnings.

Reference

Euronews. (2026, 30 Nisan). BAE OPEC’ten ayrıldı: İklim üzerindeki etkisi ne olacak? https://tr.euronews.com/2026/04/30/bae-opecten-ayrildi-iklim-uzerindeki-etkisi-ne-olacak