REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF THE US LEAVING NATO

The US-Israel/Iran war, which began on February 28, 2026, has been ongoing for over two months. During this time, US President Donald Trump has sought help and support from NATO allies. However, it is clear that Trump has not received the assistance he desired. Following this, Donald Trump threatened his allies with withdrawal from NATO, stating in an interview with a British newspaper, "I would say it's beyond reconsideration," and adding, "NATO never impressed me. I always knew they were a paper tiger, and [Russian President] Vladimir Putin knows that too." This interview raised questions about how a country could initiate the process of withdrawing from NATO.

According to Article 13 of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty, a country wishing to withdraw must formally notify the United States, and the US will then notify the other members. The withdrawal process is completed one year later.

The United States acts here as both a member and a depositor of the NATO alliance. As such, the US manages treaty texts and also handles notifications of accession and withdrawal. Therefore, if the US withdraws from being a NATO ally, it will need to notify the US State Department of its intention. Following this, it will fulfill its obligation to inform all members.

Even domestically, things aren't as simple as a US withdrawal. In 2023, then-President Joe Biden signed a law preventing a president from withdrawing from the alliance unless supported by a two-thirds majority in the Senate. This law makes it formally difficult for the US to withdraw from the agreement. The government argues that the power to withdraw from an agreement belongs to the president and that attempts to stop it are unconstitutional. In such a case, it becomes very difficult for the US to withdraw from the alliance. However, a scenario in which the US effectively withdraws by drastically reducing its contributions to NATO and abandoning its obligations under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is causing great concern. Experts warn that weakening NATO in this way would severely damage its functioning, especially considering the enormous resources provided by the US. Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the Eurasia Group, stated in an article published on X, "Trump cannot legally withdraw from NATO without Senate confirmation," and added, "But if NATO members cannot trust that the US will abide by Article 5, the alliance is already fundamentally broken."

If we consider a scenario where the US withdraws from NATO, it's safe to say there would be a difficult void to fill in Europe. This separation would bring with it a series of logistical, military, and other problems. Therefore, allies would not only have to try to fill the void but also solve a number of problems.

RESOURCES:

- https://tr.euronews.com/2026/04/04/teyit-ulkeler-natodan-nasil-cekilebilir