Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: The 2020 Escalation and Its Regional Implications

Renewed military action over Nagorno-Karabakh makes clear that the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not a “frozen” dispute but a continuing threat to stability in the South Caucasus. The recent escalation requires urgent international attention, as the possibility of a wider armed confrontation raises the risk of further instability. 

At sunrise on September 27, 2020, intense fighting broke out along the line of contact separating Nagorno-Karabakh from Azerbaijan. Each side accused the other of initiating the clash, and specific battlefield details, such as deployments and casualty numbers, remain uncertain. What is known is that military positions, villages, and the city of Stepanakert came under artillery and missile fire; Azerbaijani drones and a helicopter were shot down; armored vehicles were destroyed; and limited territorial exchange occurred. Casualties quickly exceeded one hundred. All sides declared martial law, and Armenia announced a general mobilization, while major international actors urged an immediate halt to hostilities. 

The roots of the conflict date back to 1988, when Nagorno-Karabakh sought independence from Azerbaijan during the final years of the Soviet Union. The war that followed resulted in up to thirty thousand deaths and the displacement of around one million people across both countries. Armenian forces eventually gained control over most of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding Azerbaijani regions. Large-scale warfare ended with a Russian-brokered ceasefire in 1994, which held for more than two decades but did not resolve the underlying dispute. 

Over time, political and military developments in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the wider region, combined with the absence of a political settlement, hardened negotiating positions and increased the likelihood of renewed violence. Azerbaijan repeatedly emphasized that it would restore control over its territory by force if negotiations failed. Significant escalations occurred in April 2016, known as the Four Day War, and again in July 2020, raising tensions and setting the stage for the current fighting. 

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated that the goal of the present operation is to retake all lost territories. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan warned that the region stands on the brink of a full scale war, which could produce unpredictable consequences, including large refugee movements, strikes on civilian and economic infrastructure, and spillover effects into neighboring Georgia. 

Russia and Turkey’s involvement adds further complexity. Russia is a military ally of Armenia and operates a major base in Gyumri, yet it also supplies advanced weaponry to both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Turkey, which has maintained an economic blockade of Armenia since 1993, strongly supports Azerbaijan and argues that decades of negotiations have failed. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called on Armenia to withdraw from Azerbaijani territories. Although neither Russia nor Turkey seeks direct confrontation, miscalculations could widen the conflict and complicate other regional crises. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that casualties on both sides may be nearing 5,000, much higher than official figures. Nagorno-Karabakh authorities reported 874 military deaths and 37 civilian casualties since September 27. Azerbaijan confirmed 61 civilian deaths but has not provided military casualty numbers. Putin emphasized that Russia communicates with both sides frequently and disagrees with Turkey on certain aspects of the conflict, but views President Erdoğan as a flexible and reliable partner. He also urged the United States to cooperate with Russia in efforts to halt the fighting. 

Talks are expected to take place in Washington, where U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is set to meet the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers. The United States, Russia, and France, co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, continue to call for a ceasefire and renewed negotiations. 
 

References: 
Council on Foreign Relations. (2020, September 29). Renewed fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/renewed-fighting-nagorno-karabakh 
 
BBC News. (2020, October 22). Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: Putin says nearly 5,000 killed in fighting. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54638448