Nuclear Proliferation and Recent Developments

Iran & Sanctions / Diplomacy

On September 27, 2025, U.N. sanctions against Iran were reimposed through the “snapback” mechanism, reinstating arms embargoes and restrictions on uranium enrichment and missile development.

Russia vehemently opposes this, declaring the snapback sanctions illegal and refusing to recognize their validity.

On October 1, the U.S. imposed additional sanctions targeting 21 companies and 17 individuals linked to Iran’s missile and military projects, aligning with the newly reinstated U.N. measures.

An Iranian commander recently signaled intentions to expand missile ranges, which raises concern about the ability to deliver weapons further afield.

Iran’s internal politics are under strain: conservative elements push for a harder nuclear posture under renewed sanctions, though pragmatic voices urge caution given Iran’s constrained position.

Meanwhile, the EU confirmed it has reimposed sanctions on Iran as part of the U.N. action.

Beyond sanctions, analysis suggests the deterrence norms that once checked Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure have weakened, raising the risk of new military escalations.

Implications & Risks

The snapback process and counterclaims (e.g. by Russia) deepen legal and diplomatic ambiguity.

Iran’s potential to respond militarily or further reduce cooperation with the IAEA is elevated.

Expanded missile capability hints at more credible delivery options, complicating nonproliferation efforts.

North Korea & Strategic Posture

At the U.N. General Assembly (late September 2025), North Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister asserted that denuclearization demands are tantamount to requests for surrender, and that the country will never relinquish its nuclear arsenal.

Recent reporting confirms that North Korea is nearing development of an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the U.S. mainland.

In parallel, academic research has examined North Korea’s Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR) at Yongbyon, estimating it could produce tritium and plutonium useful for weapons if reprocessed.

Sources

1. Le Monde – UN Security Council rejects Russia and China’s last-ditch effort to delay sanctions on Iran (27.09.2025)

2. Reuters – Russia says illegal sanctions on Iran deepen crisis over its nuclear program (02.10.2025)

3. AP News – US sanctions 21 companies, 17 people after UN snapback decision on Iran (01.10.2025)

4. Reuters – Iranian commander points to potential missile range increase (01.10.2025)

5. Reuters – EU confirms it has reinstated sanctions against Iran (29.09.2025)

6. EU ISS – Israel and Iran on the brink: preventing the next war (09.2025)

7. Reuters – North Korea tells UN: We will never give up nuclear program (29.09.2025)

8. Reuters – North Korea close to developing ICBM that can hit US with nuclear weapon (25.09.2025)

9. arXiv – Research on North Korea’s Experimental Light Water Reactor (12.2024)