Climate Change and National Security

Climate Change and National Security: Unfolding Risks and Strategic Responses

Introduction
Climate change is no longer a distant threat; it has become a central concern for national security. The increasing frequency of extreme weather events, sea level rise, ecological degradation, and resource scarcity are reshaping the strategic landscape. This article examines how climate change acts as a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and generating new security risks. It also explores how states and alliances are adapting their defense, intelligence, and policy frameworks to meet these challenges.

1. Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier
Climate change amplifies underlying socio-political, environmental, and economic stressors. The U.S. Intelligence Community has observed that as physical climate impacts worsen, geopolitical tensions grow, especially in vulnerable regions. For example, droughts, shifting precipitation patterns, and rising temperatures intensify competition for water and food, which in turn drive migration, internal displacement, and conflict. Moreover, military and defense infrastructures are being affected. Extreme weather events threaten installations, training grounds, transport lines, and operational readiness. Forces must now anticipate disruptions from storms, sea level rise, and wildfires.

2. Key Security Risks Posed by Climate Change
Here are major security risks associated with climate change:
- Food and Water Insecurity: Changing rainfall patterns and prolonged droughts threaten agricultural production. Some regions may face crop failures, expensive imports, or food price spikes, fueling social unrest.
- Migration and Displacement: Sea level rise and coastal flooding risk displacing millions, especially in low-lying zones. Displacement can strain host communities and create political tensions.
- State Fragility and Conflict: Areas with weak governance are especially vulnerable. Climate stressors like water scarcity or failing harvests can worsen poverty and trigger conflicts. Cross-border tensions over shared resources also loom.
- Armed Forces & Military Capabilities: The readiness, capability, and deployment of military forces are under pressure. Climate impacts can degrade infrastructure, limit mobility, and challenge supply chains.
- Geopolitical Competition: As climate change opens new maritime routes (e.g., Arctic), competition over access and control escalates.
- Ecological Collapse & Ecosystem Services Loss: Loss of ecosystems reduces natural protection against disasters, undermines livelihoods, and amplifies risks.

3. Recent Evidence & Reports
Recent reports emphasize how immediate and concrete these risks have become. NATO’s 2024 Climate Change and Security Impact Assessment notes that climate change has a profound impact on Allied security. The U.S. Intelligence Community Assessment (2025) warns that climate change will increasingly exacerbate security risks abroad and at home. A UK intelligence report warns that the climate crisis and collapse of vital ecosystems pose security threats. UN reports highlight increasing frequency of disasters and stress how vulnerable populations are bearing a disproportionate burden.

4. Strategic and Policy Responses
Given the scope of threats, what are states and alliances doing to enhance resilience and security?
- Climate Risk Integration in Defense Planning
- Adaptation & Infrastructure Resilience
- Climate Diplomacy & International Cooperation
- Preventing Conflict over Resources
- Mitigation Efforts

5. Challenges and Gaps
Despite growing recognition, challenges remain: data uncertainties, funding shortages, institutional inertia, and lack of political will.

Conclusion
Climate change poses profound risks to national security. For security policy to be effective, climate considerations must be integrated into all aspects of strategy, planning, and operations. This isn’t just an environmental issue — it is a strategic necessity.

References

• CBS News. (2025). Climate change poses national security risks, says military report. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-poses-national-security-risks-says-military-report/
• NATO. (2024). Climate Change and Security Impact Assessment. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_227571.htm
• The Guardian. (2025). National security threatened by climate crisis, UK defence chiefs warn. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/oct/08/national-security-threatened-climate-crisis-uk-defence-chiefs-warn
• UN. (2025). Climate Change Reports. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/reports
• Columbia Climate School. (2023). Why climate change is a national security risk. https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2023/10/11/why-climate-change-is-a-national-security-risk/