Yemen: A Fragile Truce, Regional Realignment, and the Enduring Humanitarian Crisis

Yemen has been experiencing one of the most severe crises in human history for over a decade. The country has turned into a complex arena where civil war, regional power struggles, and international diplomacy intersect. The past year, however, has marked a significant turning point in the Yemen file compared to previous years. This article aims to analyze, from the perspective of international relations, the humanitarian truce declared in April 2022 and officially ended in October 2022 (but with ongoing effects), the impact of regional diplomatic rapprochements on the conflict dynamic, and the persistent humanitarian tragedy that remains unchanged throughout this period.

1. A Period of Fragile Stability: The Humanitarian Truce and Its Aftermath

The humanitarian truce brokered by the United Nations in April 2022 and agreed upon by all parties was the most promising development in Yemen in recent years. This truce can be interpreted through the lens of the realist theory of international relations, particularly the concept of balance of power.
 

Since neither side could achieve a decisive military victory, they found themselves in an increasingly costly stalemate. The truce was a temporary manifestation of this military deadlock. 

Tangible outcomes of the truce included:
• A Significant Decline in Casualties: Civilian and military deaths caused by conflict dropped dramatically.
• Keeping the Port of Hudaydah Operational: This critical port, responsible for 70% of the country’s food, medicine, and humanitarian aid supplies, remained open. From a liberal institutionalist perspective, this demonstrated the vital role international organizations (like the UN) can play during crises.
• Eased Travel Restrictions: In some regions, including Taiz, travel limitations were relaxed, and Sana’a International Airport resumed commercial flights for a limited period. Despite the official end of the truce in October 2022, the de facto situation largely remained unchanged. This suggests that both sides recognized that renewed fighting would not provide strategic advantages. However, major political and economic disagreements—such as public sector salaries and revenue sharing between the central government and the Houthis—persisted and even deepened.
This highlights just how fragile even a “cold peace” can be.

2. A Paradigm Shift in Regional Diplomacy: Saudi-Iranian Rapprochement

One of the most critical external dynamics of the Yemeni conflict has been its proxy war dimension. The Saudi-led coalition supported the internationally recognized Yemeni government, while Iran provided military and political backing to the Houthis. However, the decision by Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore diplomatic relations in March 2023—mediated by China—was a development with the potential to fundamentally reshape the Yemen equation. This rapprochement can be interpreted through both realist and constructivist theories: Realism’s power transition theory helps explain how both countries recalculated the costs of continued conflict.

Saudi Arabia, under its “Vision 2030” initiative, is prioritizing internal economic reform and seeking to reduce regional entanglements. Iran, under heavy sanctions, is trying to break its regional isolation. Thus, both states made realist calculations that the proxy war in Yemen had become more costly than beneficial.
 

Simultaneously, China’s successful mediation challenges the traditional U.S. role in the Middle East and signals a shift toward a multipolar world order—a point emphasized by constructivist theory’s focus on identity and norm change. This diplomatic move had direct consequences for Yemen: Saudi Arabia began direct talks with the Houthis and significantly scaled down coalition military operations.

However, uncertainties remain regarding the extent of Iran’s influence over the Houthis and whether the Houthis can function as independent political actors within a peace process.

3. The Unchanging Reality: A Deepening Humanitarian Crisis and State Collapse

Despite political and diplomatic developments, Yemen’s humanitarian crisis has continued to worsen over the past year. This situation underscores once again the “humanitarian intervention dilemma” in international relations, which arises from the tension between state sovereignty and the responsibility to protect civilians.
 

• Economic Collapse: The depreciation of the Yemeni riyal, hyperinflation, and the inability to pay public sector salaries have pushed most of the population below the poverty line.
• Food Insecurity: According to UN data, over 21 million people (two-thirds of the population) are in need of humanitarian assistance. Yemen continues to face one of the world’s worst hunger crises.
• Health System Breakdown: Outbreaks of diseases such as cholera, measles, and COVID-19 remain uncontrolled due to a severely under-resourced healthcare system. This grim picture indicates that Yemen is facing a prolonged state failure. The absence of central authority, fragmented governance under various armed groups, and the collapse of basic public services prove that without international humanitarian aid, the situation would deteriorate even further.

Conclusion

Over the past year, Yemen has seen a glimmer of hope with the relative decline in violence and positive regional diplomatic developments. However, the road to lasting peace remains long and fraught with challenges. The fragile truce and Saudi-Iranian rapprochement have the potential to alter the external dynamics of the conflict. Yet, internal factors—such as the lack of trust between the Houthis and the Yemeni government, disputes over power-sharing, and the country’s future governance—remain unresolved.

The international community, particularly the UN and regional actors, must not only work to sustain the ceasefire but also intensify efforts to initiate a comprehensive political transition process. Without such coordinated and determined action, the fragile gains of the past year risk being overshadowed by the ongoing humanitarian tragedy. The Yemen crisis once again reminds us of the complexity of international relations, the tension between power politics and humanitarian values, and the fact that sustainable peace can only be achieved through inclusive political dialogue.

References:

•  United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). (2023). Yemen Humanitarian Needs Overview.
•  International Crisis Group. (2023). After the Saudi-Iran Rapprochement: A Chance for Peace in Yemen?
•  World Food Programme. (2023). Yemen Emergency.
• BBC News. (2023). Saudi Arabia and Iran Agree to Restore Relations in Deal Brokered by China.
• Buzan, B., & Waever, O. (2003). Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security. Cambridge University Press.
• Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. McGraw-Hill.
• Finnemore, M., & Sikkink, K. (1998). International Norm Dynamics and Political Change. International Organization, 52(4), 887–917.