WHAT IS ARMENIA TRYING TO DO?

In order to ensure permanent peace and stability in the Caucasus region, Türkiye made a proposal to Azerbaijan, Russia, Iran, Georgia and Armenia to hold talks within the framework of the 3+3 Platform, which Türkiye would also be a part of, and upon the positive responses of other countries except Georgia, the parties came together in Moscow on December 10, 2021.

The Platform, which Georgia did not participate in by saying "We will not sit at the same table with the Russian side to discuss regional issues unless the necessary steps are taken to end the occupation in the Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions", was held with the participation of the Deputy Foreign Ministers of the party countries and Türkiye was represented by a delegation headed by Deputy Foreign Minister Ambassador Sedat Önal. Afterwards, Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu announced that former Washington Ambassador Serdar Kılıç would be assigned as a special representative.

Although it was initially reported that Iran also looked coldly upon this request, its eventual participation is important in terms of the sustainability of the peace and stability planned to be established in the region. Because it is understood that in the process that has been experienced, it has grasped the current realities in the region and that it has seen that it will also benefit economically.

In order to understand this stage, it is necessary to take a brief look at the process and evaluate it.

Although its beginning dates back to very old times, the occupation of Azerbaijani lands by Armenia in the period of 1988-1994 and the genocides it committed against Azerbaijani Turks in the regions it occupied, as in the example of Khojaly, and the violations of Azerbaijani lands and settlements by Armenian soldiers with various firearms and the massacres of civilians despite the ceasefire, are also known by today's international community.

Ultimately, the military operation that Azerbaijan launched between September 27 and November 10, 2020 to put an end to Armenian aggressors and liberate its occupied lands resulted in Azerbaijan's success and managed to liberate a significant portion of its occupied lands.

Meanwhile, in the early stages of the Second Karabakh War, Iran's obvious support for Armenia was seen as a result of the justified reactions of Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Azerbaijani Turks, who are estimated to be around 40 million Iranian citizens, and Iran was forced to step back. This conflict, which lasted 44 days and took its place in history as the Second Karabakh War, began a ceasefire process with the intervention of Russia.

Although there have been various popular movements against Pashinyan's government in Armenia following the ceasefire, Pashinyan maintained his power in the renewed elections and occasionally drew attention with his positive statements. However, despite these positive statements, it has been seen that the ceasefire violations by Armenians have continued repeatedly, causing concerns that conflicts could start again at any moment.

President Erdoğan's words in August 2021, "We have taken many bilateral and multilateral steps to resolve the ongoing tensions in our region peacefully. We have stated that with the end of the occupation in Nagorno-Karabakh, a new window of opportunity has opened for permanent peace in our region, and that we will do what is necessary if Armenia evaluates this" are "opportunities", Pashinyan's words, "We are ready for such a meeting to normalize relations with Ankara" have attracted attention.

It is known that relations between Türkiye and Armenia, where diplomatic relations were severed due to the occupation and genocide of Armenia in 1988-1994, have deteriorated further with the Second Karabakh War. In such a situation, Pashinyan's words in a cabinet meeting, "We must transform our region into a junction connecting the west and the east, the north and the south", emphasizing the importance of opening transportation links in the region, are very striking; because although its population is seen as 2,963,900 according to 2021 data, it is known that the actual population is much less.

Because Armenia is constantly emigrating due to the economic problems it has experienced in the face of the justified embargoes of Azerbaijan and Türkiye due to the occupation of Karabakh lands by Azerbaijan for about 30 years. Pashinyan draws the profile of an Armenian Prime Minister who has seen and understood that the first way to stop the emigration and improve the economy is to normalize relations with Türkiye and Azerbaijan. In order to achieve this, the words “we are ready to consult with Türkiye to revive land and railway transportation” are important in terms of showing that Armenia is in a deadlock.

Therefore, it is understood that Armenia has realized that even if it activates its transportation network without normalizing its relations with Türkiye and Azerbaijan, there is no point and that it does not have a more profitable alternative to revive its economy.

Although Armenia has a South-North line project as an alternative route connecting the Iranian border to Georgia, it has not been able to make peace with Azerbaijan and the ceasefire carries the risk of breaking down as in the example of the Second Karabakh War, and even the ceasefire reached on November 10, 2020 is at risk of evolving into a new hot conflict at any moment, making this project impossible to implement.

However, drawing attention to another project that could not be implemented for the same reasons, the Iran-Russia railway line, Pashinyan’s words, “In order to solve this problem, the Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan trilateral commission is discussing the opening of communication. We are determined to make efforts to achieve concrete results. We are aware that Azerbaijan is also waiting to establish contact with Nakhchivan. We are determined to re-establish the peace process with Azerbaijan within the framework of the co-chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group…” can be interpreted as Armenia understanding that it has no other way but peace as of the current process.

In the following process, after the Secretary of the Armenian Security Council Armen Grigoryan announced that they were consulting with Russia on the possibilities of normalizing Turkish-Armenian relations, the statements of the Spokesperson of the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Vaan Unanyan stating that “Armenia is ready to normalize with Türkiye without any preconditions and that they have also conveyed their thoughts to Russia” were reported in various international press.

It was seen that another positive statement from Armenia came from the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan. Pashinyan stated that “as of May 2021, the Russian Ministry of Defense has received three proposals regarding the drawing and determination of the Armenian-Azerbaijani borders, and all three of the proposals are acceptable to Armenia”; however, it is noteworthy that no information was given on where the borders would pass and most importantly, it was not announced whether Russia had discussed this issue with Azerbaijan.

Although the Armenian side, especially Prime Minister Pashinyan, persistently talks about a process that will lead to peace, despite the fact that the Armenian side has repeatedly violated the ceasefire despite 13 months having passed since the ceasefire, and despite the fact that a series of positive messages have been given to the international community, such as declaring that there are no preconditions for border arrangement, the fact that it has not been put into practice in practice, creates the perception that thought and action are different.

Moreover, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Ceyhun Bayramov stated in his statements; “The tension on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border is an example of the Armenian administration not being able to completely abandon its provocative policy. Yerevan should understand that it will not achieve anything by doing this,” and declared that Armenia should end provocations in the border region and start the border determination process. Bayramov’s words, “So far, Armenia has not allowed the border determination process to begin under various pretexts, but this is the only way to prevent tension on the border” are noteworthy; because these words are important in terms of showing that Pashinyan does not agree with his previous words on this issue.

It should also be remembered that the accuracy of the maps showing the mined areas presented by Armenia to Azerbaijan is around 25%, which has led to the questioning of Armenia's sincerity.

In conclusion;

Although the idea came from Türkiye, it is seen that the preliminary talks have been initiated with the coming together of Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Russia, Iran and Armenia in Moscow in the 3+2 format upon Türkiye's proposal; it is also seen that evaluations are being made that emphasize the idea that Russian hegemony is still effective on the countries in the region; because Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which also includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Belarus, since October 7, 2002. Armenia is also a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the foundations of which were laid by Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia on May 29, 2014 and which Kyrgyzstan also joined in the following years, and this provides the basis for the formation of these ideas.

However, it should not be overlooked that Türkiye has bilateral relations with Russia, which have reached the level of strategic partnership, which has reached significant levels in recent years, in contrast to these communities where Armenia is a part of Russia.

Meanwhile; in order for the 3+2 format to be successful in the long term and on a broader scale, it will be important to convince Georgia in the future and transform it into 3+3.

In addition, it is certain that with the start of the peace process in the Caucasus region, roads and railways will enter an intensive construction process. Because, due to their interests, Russia, the European Union, the United States, France, India and China, the owner of the Belt and Road Project, will also gladly support it.

More importantly, the Turkish geography is of course aware that the bridge of friendship and trade that will extend to the Turkish Republics via the Türkiye-Nakhichevan-Azerbaijan line is of inconceivably vital importance.

As a final note;

In order to show that it is sincere in its statements full of peace rhetoric towards the international community, Armenia should first declare that it recognizes Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, accepts to pay compensation for the loss of life and property it has caused in the areas it has occupied for nearly 30 years, and declares and accepts that it will compensate for the material and moral gains it has obtained from the underground and aboveground resources of the region during the years of occupation, and then demonstrate this in the field with its practices.

The decision-making mechanisms of Türkiye and Azerbaijan should also declare that a permanent peace treaty can only be signed with Armenia, which has “no other option but peace”, under these conditions. Because it is clearly seen that Armenia’s words “we are open to unconditional peace and border agreements” are a maneuver to avoid paying compensation for all the oppression, brutality, murders and genocides, material and moral damages it has caused for years, and a trap to deceive the international community.