The World Order After The COVID-19
Corona virus which started to spread from the city of Wuhan in China and almost managed to affect the countries of the world; caused a global crisis. This crisis which is declared as 'Pandemic' by the world health organization directly affects every area of life. Unexpectedly after the virus that started to shape international politics, economy and even cultural-social life; a number of global changes are expected to come and power balances between states and societies are expected to change.
First of all, we need to consider the effect of the virus on health and education. This emerging virus has shown us once again that the health sector; They are the most important defense mechanisms in the hands of states. In the global order we are in; states need strong health mechanisms. Although cyber attacks are shown as the most important threats of today, epidemics and viruses that we have experienced closely have become serious threats.
Looking at the discourses of the country leaders after the virus is beneficial in understanding the impact of the virus. Especially England and some Eastern European countries did not take the virus very seriously. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had statements that almost caused the virus to spread. The British Prime Minister, who paved the way for the spread of the virus under the name of Herd Immunity; the epidemic acted with the logic that would spread and disappear. However, when this policy was harshly criticized in a UK-based scientific board report, Boris Johnson had to return from this policy. US President Trump's 'I feel like Presidents in the war period' and French President Macron's 'This is a war' discourse show us that the virus has reached serious dimensions. China, Russia and Turkey, including the country where the virus made out under the scope of the fight against global secretion; They have provided serious assistance to European countries.
The effect of the virus directly affects cultural and social life. States have switched to distance education to prevent the spread of the virus. Similarly, companies around the world have forced their employees to work at home. Therefore, states, institutions and organizations that have remote access infrastructures in the digital world we are in are expected to be less affected by this crisis.
What kind of change will this disease, which has turned into a global epidemic, cause a change in world order? First of all, we need to know that the crisis we are facing; it is the biggest crisis after the second world war. Its results will affect many states on a global scale. The fact that global production has come to a halt due to its virus, and even to stop in some regions, Saudi Arabia has increased its oil production despite the decreasing demand for oil, and that the energy war with Russia shows some changing balances. Provision of the entire supply of intermediate goods from China and the absence of any other alternative caused a global production crisis. At this point I want to state that; Instead of dealing with the complete theories that the virus is produced in a lab by the USA, we need to focus on the effects that the virus has and will have.
This emerging virus caused interrogations of international organizations such as NATO and the EU. Italy requests assistance from the NATO ally, the USA, and the USA does not respond to this aid; It caused the USA's understanding of alliance to be questioned once again. In addition, some people in the European Union, such as France and Italy, share videos showing that they burned the EU flags; It clearly shows us that the EU needs a serious revision after the crisis. We see a Russia and China that fill the gap within NATO due to not come aid from the USA. Russia and China provide serious support to Italy in order to combat the virus. Russia which helps NATO that established against it; It led to questioning the future of NATO. And here we have to say that Italy is not the only country that Russia helped. Following the telephone conversation between Trump and Putin in the past few days, Russia's delivery of military cargo aircraft and health supplies to the USA is another example of the changing global order.
So which country will take its place in the global system more strongly after this virus? Absolutely China. Although China is a place where the virus has spread, the virus has lost its effect in China. It is evident that China, which is defined as the world's production factory, will benefit from the falling oil price due to the epidemic. China, which has begun to stockpile the oil it bought at cheap prices, will recover its post-crisis economy very comfortably with the products it will produce at low cost. This crisis in the USA is intended to be used to withdraw the US companies that produce in China. Some of the US officials' explanations that our companies should withdraw from China and that a suitable environment has been created for withdrawal; It directly reflects Trump's understanding of economic nationalism. And it causes a question like this. Is this virus a reflection of the struggle between Globalists and Mercantilists? Will globalization disappear after the virus? Will globalization slow down? The disappearance of a globalizing world is impossible due to the Information Age that we are in. As of now, one person at one end of the world can comfortably communicate with another person at another corner of world. Based on this, globalization cannot be stopped. Although states have closed their borders in order to prevent the spread of the virus, globalization after the disappearance of the virus; it will continue with changing balances.
As a result; states that have made serious investments in the digitalization and health sector during the crisis period; we see that it will survive the epidemic with less harm. In the chaos created by the virus, it would not be realistic to wait for states to put their interest relations aside and enter a goodwill-based aid process. Russia and China are sending health equipment to NATO's member Italy and also Russia is sending to the USA; In addition to being a harbinger of the changing global order, it also points to new international organizations that may arise. This crisis has shown us that digitalization and integrating existing systems into the internet world has become very important.
Güney Güvenlik Okulu Siber Güvenlik Masası Sorumlusu.